NI
NN INC (NNBR)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q3 2025: Net sales $103.9M (-8.5% YoY); adjusted operating income $4.0M (>3x YoY); adjusted EBITDA $12.4M (11.9% margin, +170 bps YoY); adjusted EPS $(0.01); free cash flow $9.1M, reflecting a step change in working capital management .
- Versus S&P Global consensus: revenue missed ($103.9M vs $111.8M), EPS missed ($(0.01) vs $0.02); Power Solutions grew (+4.7% YoY) while Mobile Solutions declined (-16.4% YoY) on rationalization and softer auto volumes; margins improved on cost actions and mix shift toward defense/electronics .
- Guidance: net sales lowered to $420–$440M (from $430–$460M) while adjusted EBITDA ($53–$63M), free cash flow ($14–$16M, assumes CARES refund), and new business wins ($60–$70M) were reiterated at low ends due to macro uncertainty; 2026 outlook calls for improving auto/commercial vehicle and continued defense/electronics growth .
- Catalysts: ongoing M&A program and preferred equity refinancing to enhance flexibility and common equity accretion; final consolidation of a high-cost plant to remove negative EBITDA drag; expanding A&D capabilities supported by ITAR/FFL licensing and new weapons customer win .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Margin expansion and profitability: adjusted operating income rose to $4.0M vs $1.3M prior year; adjusted EBITDA margin improved to 11.9% (+170 bps YoY) on cost reductions and favorable mix .
- Free cash flow and working capital: FCF improved to $9.1M; management highlighted a structural “step change” in working capital delivering a more predictable cash profile .
- Power Solutions strength: segment net sales $44.9M (+4.7% YoY); adjusted income from operations $8.1M (18.0% margin) supported by precious metal pass-through pricing, mix, and cost actions .
- Commercial progress/new wins: $11.3M wins in Q3; $44.4M YTD; pipeline expanded to >$850M with foundational wins in defense (weapons components) and medical (robotic surgery consumables) .
- Strategic trajectory: management emphasized transformation momentum, M&A pipeline, and preferred equity refinancing underway to unlock shareholder value .
What Went Wrong
- Revenue and EPS miss vs consensus: revenue $103.9M vs $111.8M consensus; EPS $(0.01) vs $0.02, driven by auto market softness and rationalization impacts despite mix tailwinds .
- Mobile Solutions weakness: net sales $59.1M (-16.4% YoY); adjusted income from operations $0.3M as lower volumes and rationalization weighed on segment profitability .
- Macro/market headwinds: data center-driven grid demand exists, but U.S. electrical infrastructure spending faced delays; global auto volumes remain soft; management guided to low end of ranges and reduced FY net sales .
Financial Results
Consolidated Performance (reported)
Q3 Margin and Cash Metrics
Segment Breakdown (Q3 2025)
Estimates vs Actuals (S&P Global)
Note: Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
Guidance Changes
Management added a qualitative 2026 outlook: improving North American passenger vehicle production in 2026, commercial vehicle recovery in H2’26, multi-year defense/electronics growth, and >$60M of launches in 2026; some legacy minimal-profit auto business to be completed in rationalization .
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “We delivered another quarter of strong progress… higher operating income, improved gross and adjusted EBITDA margins, and positive free cash flow performance.”
- “We are launching approximately $48 million of new programs in 2025… they will serve to further strengthen our foundation and position NN for solid top-line growth in 2026 and beyond.”
- “Our adjusted EBITDA did go up… margin is up 170 basis points year over year… on a lower sales base.”
- “Softness in the North American automotive market created an opportunity… to consolidate our last plant that loses money.”
- “Our strategic M&A program is underway… evaluating multiple acquisition targets… incorporating the refinancing of our preferred stock.”
Q&A Highlights
- Power Solutions/electrical: Data center demand is driving grid needs; NN’s participation centers on hardware for connect/disconnect and circuit breaking, with focused product strategy .
- Margin path: Power Solutions percentages pressured by high gold/silver prices (pass-through effect); Mobile to improve via final removal of negative EBITDA business and accretive wins .
- Capacity/utilization: Stamping ~60% utilization with significant room; machining varies 60–80% by facility, overall capacity available .
- Preferred stock refinancing: Goal to eliminate preferred; considering standalone vs M&A-coupled refi; engaging advisors and current stakeholders (e.g., Morgan Stanley) .
- China operations/JV: JV ~$130M sales and >$30M EBITDA; BYD a major customer; wholly-owned China ~$70M sales, profitable and cash generative; repatriation ongoing .
- Free cash flow outlook: Absent CARES refund, Q4 FCF could be $2–3M; next year targeted around ~$10M with stronger EBITDA and WC; lower rates could help cash interest .
- 2026 set-up: Automotive by region—China growing; Europe improving via a large win; North America slightly up; electrical flat base with wins; commercial vehicle improving in H2’26 .
Estimates Context
- Q3 2025 results vs S&P Global consensus: revenue $103.9M vs $111.8M (miss); Primary EPS $(0.01) vs $0.02 (miss). Management cited auto softness and rationalization impacts, partially offset by precious metal pass-through pricing and mix gains (defense/electronics) .
- Post-quarter estimate implications: Consensus likely to drift lower on revenue/near-term EPS while margin outlook supported by cost actions, mix improvements, and final plant consolidation timing .
Note: Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Mix-driven margin resilience: Despite top-line pressure, adjusted EBITDA margin expanded to 11.9% on cost actions and favorable mix; continued pathway to long-term 13–14% EBITDA margins .
- Portfolio transition gaining traction: Power Solutions strength and defense/medical wins are counterbalancing auto softness; 2026 pipeline/launch cadence (> $60M) supports top-line recovery .
- Cash generation turning: $9.1M FCF with structural WC improvements; focus remains on WC discipline and capex tied to accretive program wins .
- Strategic balance sheet actions: Preferred equity refinancing underway in parallel with M&A; potential to improve cost of capital and common equity accretion .
- Near-term trading: Expect sensitivity to auto macro headlines and CARES refund timing; narrative supports valuation on margin progress and strategic optionality despite revenue misses .
- Medium-term thesis: Execution on plant consolidation, program ramp, and A&D growth should lift earnings power and cash conversion; watch gold/silver pass-through impact on reported margin percentages .
- Segment focus: Power Solutions margin durability (18% adjusted op margin) and Mobile normalization post-rationalization provide levers for consolidated margin expansion .